BulingBuling - 《超出α的回报》 [ Better than Alpha ]

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超出α的回报

在不断变化的世界中获取超额收益的三个步骤

作者：Christopher Schelling

Better than Alpha

Three Steps to Capturing Excess Returns in a Changing World

By Christopher Schelling

内容提要

《超出α的回报》（2021）鼓励投资者摆脱对阿尔法的迷恋。阿尔法表示与市场指数相比，一项投资的回报量。本书探讨了真正驱动回报的因素，因此你可以建立一个成功的投资组合，实现你的投资目标，而不是徒劳无功。

Synopsis

Better than Alpha (2021) encourages investors to let go of their obsession with alpha – the amount an investment has returned compared to the market index. It explores what really drives returns, so you can build a successful portfolio and meet your investment goals instead of chasing rainbows.

本书适用于谁？

* 希望做出更好的决定并改善其投资组合的投资者

* 对行为金融学有兴趣的人

* 任何想看穿炒作并了解阿尔法真相的人

Who is it for?

* Investors who want to make better decisions and improve their portfolios

* People with an interest in behavioral finance

* Anyone who wants to see through the hype and learn the truth about alpha

关于作者

克里斯托弗-谢林是一位经验丰富的机构投资者，在他20年的职业生涯中收益了50亿美元。他目前在德克萨斯州奥斯汀的温德姆赫勒基金担任常务董事。他也是《机构投资者》和《华尔街日报》等出版物的撰稿人。

About the author

Christopher Schelling is an experienced institutional investor who has allocated $5 billion throughout his 20-year career. He currently serves as Managing Director at Windmuehle Funds in Austin, Texas. He’s also a contributor to publications such as Institutional Investor and the Wall Street Journal.

1, What’s in it for me? An intelligent approach to investing.

[ 本书讲了什么？一种明智的投资方法 ]

投资者往往痴迷于寻找阿尔法；他们希望在他们的投资中获得最大的回报，并击败市场。但阿尔法并不总是像它看起来那样--对投资的仔细分析往往会发现，这种所谓的阿尔法完全是另一种东西。

Investors tend to be obsessed with finding alpha; they want to maximize returns on their investments and beat the market.But alpha is not always what it seems – a closer analysis of investments often reveals that this so-called alpha is something else entirely.

在机构投资领域积累了多年的经验后，作者找到了一种替代策略。有一种更聪明的方法来满足你的投资结果，它始于从根本上重新思考你对成功的想法。

After years of experience in the world of institutional investing, the author has found an alternative strategy. There’s a smarter way to meet your investment outcomes, and it starts with radically rethinking your ideas about success.

阿尔法并不是万能的，不是一切也不是最终目标，还有更好的东西。

Alpha is not the be-all and end-all – there’s something even better.

在这里，你会学到:

    * 对阿尔法的追求往往是注定要失败的。

    * 为什么你不应该总是相信你的直觉；以及

    * 沃伦-巴菲特的成功秘诀之一。

In these blinks you’ll learn

* that the quest for alpha is often doomed to fail;

* why you shouldn’t always trust your intuition; and

* one of the secrets of Warren Buffet’s success.

2, Alpha is enticing – but it's also unreliable and easily manipulated.

[ 阿尔法是诱人的--但它也是不可靠的，容易被操纵的 ]

阿尔法。如果你和你的投资同伴有一个共同点，那可能是对这个诱人的、难以捉摸的目标的迷恋。但是，就像美丽的海市蜃楼一样，阿尔法似乎在靠近观察后就会消失。

Alpha. If there’s one thing you share with your fellow investors, it’s probably a fascination with this alluring and elusive target. But, just like a beautiful mirage, alpha seems to disappear on closer inspection.

在我们更详细地研究这个谜团之前，让我们花点时间来定义阿尔法--一个经常被误用的术语。阿尔法是一项投资相对于基准指数的超额回报。换句话说，阿尔法基本上是衡量一个投资者在多大程度上战胜了市场。相比之下，贝塔是通过被动拥有特定市场的证券而获得的指数回报。

Before we examine this mystery in more detail, let’s take a moment to define alpha – a term that’s often misused. Alpha is the excess return of an investment relative to the benchmark index. In other words, alpha is basically a measurement of how well an investor is beating the market. By contrast, beta is the index return that’s achieved through passive ownership of securities in a specific market.

作为一个投资者，你想要阿尔法，而不是贝塔。然而，这说起来容易做起来难。

As an investor, you want alpha – not beta. However, that’s easier said than done.

这里的关键信息是：阿尔法是诱人的 - 但它也是不可靠的，容易被操纵。

The key message here is: Alpha is enticing – but it's also unreliable and easily manipulated.

经理人可以很容易地扭曲阿尔法，以适应他们自己的目的。通过挑选他们自己的指数和选择一个很差的贝塔，他们可以把超额回报作为阿尔法来呈现。但是，正如俗话所说，所有闪闪发光的东西都不是金子。仔细分析往往会发现，这种所谓的阿尔法实际上是贝塔。这就是为什么经理人在进行投资之前使用有效的基准是如此重要。

Managers can easily distort alpha to suit their own ends. By picking their own index and choosing an easy-to-beat beta, they can present excess returns as alpha. But, as the saying goes, all that glitters is not gold. Close analysis often reveals that this so-called alpha is actually beta. This is why it’s so important for managers to use effective benchmarks before making the investment.

阿尔法是令人沮丧的随机和不可靠的。它来去如风。这种趋势在公开市场、私募股权和对冲基金中都很明显。后者最初似乎是一个阿尔法的成功故事，像沃伦-巴菲特和巴顿-比格斯这样的对冲基金超级明星取得了令人惊叹的回报。

Alpha is frustratingly random and unreliable. It comes and goes. This trend is apparent in public markets, private equity, and hedge funds. The latter originally appeared to be an alpha success story, with hedge fund superstars like Warren Buffett and Barton Biggs making breathtaking returns.

但数据显示，自2005年以来，对冲基金的α值一直在下降。作者举了一个对冲基金的例子，它吹嘘的历史回报是 "100%的纯阿尔法"--但仅仅几年后就崩溃了。

But the data shows that since 2005, hedge fund alpha has been in decline. The author gives the example of one hedge fund that boasted historical returns of “100% pure alpha” – only to collapse just a few years later.

阿尔法的不稳定性给大型资产所有者带来了一个特别的问题，他们可能突然不得不重新考虑他们数十亿或数万亿美元的资本分配。当你处理如此庞大的资本池时，这有点像驾驶一架巨大的飞机。它需要一段时间来提高速度，而且你不能突然改变方向。

The erratic nature of alpha poses a particular problem for large asset owners, who may suddenly have to rethink their allocations of billions or trillions of dollars in capital. When you’re dealing with such a vast pool of capital, it’s a little like piloting a huge aircraft. It takes awhile to get up to speed, and you can’t suddenly change direction.

个人投资者也需要谨慎行事。随着个人投资者也能参与像私募股权和对冲基金这样的投资，更多的人有可能被阿尔法海市蜃楼所误导。

Individual investors also need to be cautious. As alternative investments like private equity and hedge funds become available for individuals, more people risk being misled by the alpha mirage.

很容易被炒作所迷惑，或者被首字母缩写词和流行语所迷惑。在下面，我们将仔细看看阿尔法的真正性质，用通俗的方法来说明。

It’s easy to fall for the hype or get confused by acronyms and buzzwords. In the next blink, we’ll take a closer look at the true nature of alpha – without the jargon.

3, True alpha is in decline because of the boom in market factors and data.

[ 由于市场的各种因素和数据的快速发展，真正的阿尔法正在下降 ]

我们经常犯一个错误，就是用简单化的术语来看待阿尔法，而实际上它是很微妙的。阿尔法并不是绝对的；它有点类似存在于一个连续的频谱中。

We often make the mistake of viewing alpha in simplistic terms, when it’s actually much more nuanced. Alpha isn't absolute; it exists along a spectrum.

首先，有一个真正的阿尔法。这是仅通过选择与市场不同的证券来产生超额回报。这种阿尔法是真正击败市场的，而不是倾向于押注某个行业或受益于行业红利。

First, there’s true alpha. This is the generation of excess returns only through selecting securities that differ from the market. This kind of alpha is truly beating the market without tilts like sector bets or dividends.

另一方面，人为制造的阿尔法涉及通过变化创造价值。例如，如果一个经理人买了一个破旧的公寓，并计划对其进行翻新并提高其价值，这就是一种人造阿尔法。

Manufactured alpha, on the other hand, involves the creation of value through changes. For instance, if a manager buys a run-down apartment with plans to renovate it and increase its value, that’s a kind of manufactured alpha.

转变型阿尔法是暂时的和不可预知的。这种阿尔法可以通过持有一项资产一段时间直到价格正常化而产生。

Transitional alpha is temporary and unpredictable. This kind of alpha can be generated by holding an asset for a period of time until prices normalize.

大多数投资者都希望找到真正的特有的阿尔法，但越来越难得到。

Most investors are hoping to find true alpha, which is idiosyncratic, and increasingly hard to come by.

这里有一个关键信息：由于市场的各种因素和数据的快速发展，真正的阿尔法正在下降。

Here’s the key message: True alpha is in decline because of the boom in market factors and data.

寻找真正的阿尔法就像在干草堆里找一根针。而不幸的是，针在变小，而干草堆在变大。研究表明，真正的阿尔法在加速下降，它正在迅速消失，变成了贝塔。

Searching for true alpha is like looking for a needle in a haystack. And unfortunately, the needle is getting smaller, while the haystack is getting bigger. Studies show an accelerated decline in true alpha, which is rapidly disappearing and turning into beta.

一种解释是因素的急剧增加--驱动回报的要素，如市值或波动性。阿尔法是刨除这些因素剩下的，所以它不可避免地有相应的下降。如果有更多的因素，那么留给阿尔法的就会更少。

One explanation is the dramatic increase in factors – the elements that drive returns, such as market capitalization or volatility. Alpha is a residual, so it’s inevitably had a corresponding decline. If there are more factors, there’s less left over for alpha.

问题的另一方面是数据爆炸。美国国会图书馆有超过3200万册图书--这是200多年来获得的收藏。现在，在一天之内，世界创造的新数据量相当于250个国会图书馆的数据量。你没听错：每一天。

Another part of the problem is the data explosion. The Library of Congress has more than 32 million books – a collection acquired over 200 years. Now, in a single day, the world creates an amount of new data equivalent to 250 Libraries of Congress. That’s right: every single day.

我们根本无法跟上现有的信息量。

We simply can’t keep up with the amount of information that exists.

显然，过去有效的技术已经不再适用了。为了找到阿尔法并改善投资组合结果，我们必须以不同的方式行事。而且我们不能简单地依赖技术--复杂的投资决策仍然需要人类的智慧和创造力。

Clearly, the techniques that worked in the past are no longer applicable. To find alpha and improve portfolio outcomes, we’ll have to do things differently. And we can’t simply rely on technology – human intelligence and creativity are still required for complex investment decisions.

一种选择是在不同的地方寻找阿尔法；在资本和信息短缺的领域存在机会。另一个选择是制造阿尔法，这比寻找真正的阿尔法更容易。然而，可以说，我们有些本末倒置。撇开阿尔法不谈，如果我们想做出成功的投资决策，我们就必须改变我们的思维方式。

One option is to look for alpha in different places; opportunities exist in areas where there’s a short supply of capital and information. Another option is to manufacture alpha, which is easier than finding true alpha. It could be argued, however, that our priorities are misplaced. Alpha aside, if we want to make successful investment decisions, we’ll have to change the way we think.

4, We’re often led astray by cognitive biases – so don’t blindly trust your intuition.

[ 我们经常被认知偏见带入歧途--所以不要盲目地相信你的直觉 ]

想象一下下面这个实验，由一个原始人进行。一个人把几块石头丢进河里，接着是一些木头。他注意到一个模式：石头总是下沉，而原木总是漂浮。他得出的结论是，石头本来就比木头重。

Imagine the following experiment, conducted by a primitive human. A man drops a few rocks into a river, followed by some logs. He notices a pattern: the rocks always sink, while the logs always float. He concludes that rocks are inherently heavier than logs.

但他错了。这种推理是被称为 "固有启发式 "的认知偏见的一个例子。我们有一种识别模式的倾向--然后把它变成一种解释性的叙述。这是一种肤浅的思维方式，但我们一直在这样做，因为这比分析性思考更容易。

But he’s wrong. This kind of reasoning is an example of the cognitive bias known as the inherence heuristic. We have a tendency to identify a pattern – and then turn it into an explanatory narrative. It’s a superficial way of thinking, but we do it all the time because it’s easier than thinking analytically.

这里有一个关键的信息: 我们经常被认知偏差引入歧途--所以不要盲目相信你的直觉。

Here’s the key message: We’re often led astray by cognitive biases – so don’t blindly trust your intuition.

投资者也会被固有的启发式思维所误导。非流动性溢价，或投资者可以从交易量不大的债券上获得的额外回报，就是一个例子。从历史上看，某些公开交易的资产的表现是出色的。但我们不能假设表现优异是这些资产的一个永久或固有的特征。回报取决于各种因素，如股息收益率--相对于其股票价格，公司每年向股东支付多少钱。

Investors are misled by the inherence heuristic too. The illiquidity premium, or the extra return an investor could receive on bonds that aren’t traded heavily, is one example. Historically, certain publicly traded assets have outperformed. But we can’t assume that outperformance is a permanent or inherent feature of these assets. Returns depend on all kinds of factors, such as dividend yield– how much a company pays to its shareholders each year relative to its stock price.

因此，我们不要急于下结论说某些资产保证会有好的表现。如果你这样想，你就犯了和原始人一样的错误。

So let’s not jump to the conclusion that certain assets are guaranteed to perform well. If you think like that, you’re making the same mistake as the primitive man!

在不知不觉中，我们不断受到认知偏见的影响。例如，我们被确认偏见所左右--对与我们现有信念一致的信息的偏爱。或者，在我们急于避免损失的情况下，我们被沉没成本谬误所困，在我们应该放手的时候坚持不放。

Without realizing it, we’re constantly being influenced by cognitive biases. For instance, we’re swayed by the confirmation bias – a preference for information that aligns with our existing beliefs. Or, in our eagerness to avoid loss, we get trapped by the sunk cost fallacy and hold on when we should let go.

在某种程度上，这些偏见是不可避免的--我们的思维方式就是这样。但当涉及到复杂的财务决策时，我们的原始大脑很难做出快速、准确的评估。

To a certain degree, these biases are inevitable – we’re wired to think this way. But when it comes to complex financial decisions, our primitive brains struggle with making quick, accurate assessments.

因此，考虑到这一点，你真的应该相信你的直觉吗？也许不应该。没有人有战胜市场的神奇能力，无论他们可能觉得多么自信。

So, with that in mind, should you really trust your intuition? Probably not. No one has a magical ability to beat the market, no matter how confident they might feel.

回到岩石实验，我们可以看到真正重要的东西--知识。通过研究，我们现在明白，是物体中的原子密度决定了它是否会漂浮。这与岩石本身的属性无关。同样，对于某些资产的明显成功，可能有另一种解释；我们只是需要看得更深一点。

Going back to the rock experiment, we can see what really matters – knowledge. Through research, we now understand that it’s the density of atoms in an object that determines whether or not it floats. It’s not about any inherent qualities in a rock. Similarly, there’s probably another explanation for the apparent success of certain assets; we just need to look a little deeper.

为了消除你的自然局限性，要不断学习。沃伦-巴菲特每天的阅读时间长达8小时。是的，这是一个很高的标准--但如果你对成功是认真的，你就需要有很高的要求!

To combat your natural limitations, keep learning. Warren Buffett reads for up to eight hours a day. Yes, it’s a high bar – but if you’re serious about success, you need to aim high!

5, Slow, analytical thinking should be reserved for big, impactful decisions.

[ 缓慢的、分析性的思考应该保留给重大的、有影响的决定 ]

因此，我们的本能直觉往往是错误的。那么按道理来说，我们应该避免做出快速的决定，并真正地把事情想清楚--对吗？实际上，这要看情况。在不同的情况下要用不同的思考方式。

So, our gut instincts are often wrong. Presumably, then, we should avoid making quick decisions and really think things through – right? Actually, it depends. Different kinds of thinking are useful in different situations.

让我们看看心理学家丹尼尔-卡尼曼（Daniel Kahneman）在《Thinking, Fast and Slow》中概述的模型。快速、直观的思维被称为系统1；相反，系统2包括较慢的、分析性的思维。系统2的思考通常会导致更准确的结果，但它也很累人。我们的精神能量是有限的。

Let’s look at the model outlined by the psychologist Daniel Kahneman in Thinking, Fast and Slow. Quick, intuitive thinking is called System 1; conversely, System 2 consists of slower, analytical thinking. System 2 thinking generally leads to more accurate outcomes, but it’s also exhausting. Our mental energy is finite.

例如，2011年一项关于以色列假释听证会的研究表明，听证会在上午举行的囚犯有65%的机会获得假释。对于在一天结束时举行听证会的囚犯，这一机会几乎降至零。法官们心力交瘁，所以他们开始依赖系统1的思维--自动对假释说 "不"。

For example, a 2011 study on Israeli parole hearings showed that inmates whose hearings took place in the morning had a 65 percent chance of being granted parole. For the inmates who had their hearings at the end of the day, that chance dropped to almost zero. Judges were worn out, so they started to rely on System 1 thinking – automatically saying “no” to parole.

这恰恰说明，没有人有耐力整天进行系统2的思考。

It just goes to show that nobody has the stamina for System 2 thinking all day.

这里有一个关键信息: 缓慢的、分析性的思考应该保留给重大的、有影响的决定。

Here’s the key message: Slow, analytical thinking should be reserved for big, impactful decisions.

普通工人每天要做多达40,000个决定。我们不应该把时间和精力花在很多无关紧要的小决定上，而应该致力于做出更少、更大的决定--并确保我们做出正确的决定。这意味着大部分时间都要依靠系统1；我们需要保存我们的精神能量，只在真正重要的判断上使用系统2。

The average worker makes up to 40,000 decisions every day. Instead of spending time and energy on lots of little, insignificant decisions, we should aim to make fewer and bigger decisions – and make sure we get them right. That means relying on System 1 most of the time; we need to conserve our mental energy and only use System 2 for really important judgment calls.

投资过程中最重要的决策阶段是什么？根据作者的说法，我们应该把系统2的思维保留在初始阶段--制定政策和选择资产配置。

What are the most important decision-making phases in the investment process? According to the author, we should reserve our System 2 thinking for the initial stages – setting policies and selecting asset allocation.

让我们从改善第一个阶段，即政策制定开始。决策应该在一个非正式的环境中进行，这样每个拥有相关知识的人都能做出贡献。这样，你就更有可能激发出最好的想法。

Let’s start by improving the first stage, policy setting. Decision-making should take place in an informal environment, so everyone with relevant knowledge is able to contribute. That way, you’re more likely to elicit the best ideas.

政策制定的第一步应该包括对目标的详细讨论和对如何衡量成功的明确阐述。小组还需要定义风险，并制定一个时间表。然后，留出足够的时间对政策和投资目标进行全面研究和仔细斟酌。

The first step of policy setting should include a detailed discussion of goals and a clear articulation of how success should be measured. The group also needs to define risk and decide on a timeline. Then, allow plenty of time for thorough research and careful deliberation of the policy and investment objectives.

只有到那时，你才能做出最终决定。一旦所有的东西都被记录下来，产生一个全面的投资政策声明；这将支持你未来的决策。在资产配置方面使用类似的谨慎和有条不紊的方法，你就会在投资方面获得成功。

Only then should you make the final decision. Once everything has been documented, produce a comprehensive investment policy statement; this will support your future decision-making. Use a similarly careful and methodical approach for asset allocation, and you’ll be well on your way to investment success.

6, Use the 5P framework during the due diligence process to improve your investment performance.

[ 在前期评估过程中使用5P框架来提高你的投资业绩 ]

我们已经讨论了如何以深入的、系统2的思维来对待投资过程的初始阶段。但在大多数时候，我们不得不依赖快速、不可靠的系统1思维。在这种情况下，我们如何才能优化良好的决策？

We've discussed how to approach the initial stages of the investment process with in-depth, System 2 thinking. Most of the time, though, we have to depend on quick, unreliable System 1 thinking. How can we optimize good decision-making in these instances?

让我们来看看投资过程中的尽职调查阶段；这涉及到对潜在投资的彻底调查，包括风险评估和对过去业绩的评估。与政策制定相比，尽职调查的战略性较低。在这里你不需要系统2的思维，但一个框架可以帮助你实现你的目标。

Let's look at the due diligence stage of the investment process; this involves a thorough investigation of a potential investment, including risk assessment and the evaluation of past performance. Compared to policy setting, due diligence is less strategic. You don’t need System 2 thinking here, but a framework can help you meet your objectives.

这里的关键信息是：在尽职调查过程中使用5P框架来提高你的投资绩效。

Here’s the key message: Use the 5P framework during the due diligence process to improve your investment performance.

这个框架是基于五个关键因素，它们都以字母P开头--业绩、人员、理念、流程和投资组合。

This framework is based on five key factors, and they all begin with the letter P – performance, people, philosophy, process, and portfolio.

其中两个因素，业绩和人员，是关于经理人的选择。当你选择经理人时，要分析他们过去的表现，这样你就可以对结果设定现实的期望。你还应该寻找一个体现智慧、正直和强力等品质的经理。换句话说，你想要一个对工作充满热情的专家--而且你可以完全信任他。

Two of these factors, performance and people, are about manager selection. When you’re choosing a manager, analyze their past performance so you can set realistic expectations for results. You should also look for a manager who embodies the qualities of intelligence, integrity, and intensity. In other words, you want an expert who is passionate about their work – and who you can trust completely.

你还需要考虑投资团队的工作理念；他们的共同目标应该是问责和赋权。团队需要协作，共享成果，并有互补的技能。

You also need to consider the investment team’s work philosophy; their common goal should be accountability and empowerment. The team needs to be collaborative, share values, and have complementary skills.

遵循正确的程序也很重要。为了获得最好的结果，经理需要遵循一个一致的、预先确定的过程。作为这个过程的一部分，深入分析投资组合。继续积极监测和管理投资组合--最好是通过战术性资产配置和再平衡。

Following the correct process is important too. For the best results, the manager needs to follow a consistent, predetermined process. As part of this process, analyze the portfolio in depth. Continue to actively monitor and manage the portfolio – ideally through tactical asset allocation and rebalancing.

正确的尽职调查是至关重要的；研究表明，它可以对业绩产生重大影响。例如，一项研究考察了创业平台Fundify上的天使投资。对早期创业公司的投资可能是有风险的--但根据研究结果，表现最好的交易是那些投资者至少做了40个小时的尽职调查。

Getting the due diligence right is crucial; research shows that it can make a significant impact on performance. For example, one study looked at angel investments on the startup platform Fundify. Investments in early startups can be risky – but according to the study’s findings, the deals that performed best were those where investors did at least 40 hours of due diligence.

仔细的尽职调查可能会也可能不会带来阿尔法。但请记住，你的目标应该是获得更高的回报。如果你花时间并遵循5P框架，你就更有可能成功。

Careful due diligence may or may not lead to alpha. But remember, your goal should be getting higher returns. If you take your time and follow the 5P framework, you’re a lot more likely to succeed.

到目前为止，我们已经研究了如何改善决策和流程。接下来，我们将研究拼图的最后一块：管理。

So far, we’ve looked at how to improve decision-making and processes. Next, we’ll examine the final piece of the puzzle: governance.

7, For investment success, choose a leader who is experienced and charismatic.

[ 为了投资成功，选择一个有经验和有魅力的领导人 ]

当选择错误的人作为最终辅佐人，其结果可能是灾难性的。有一个组织，即达拉斯消防和警察养老金，由于对房地产投资判断失误，发现自己处于非常不稳定的财务状况。这些投资背后的首席管理者缺乏相关经验。他的职业背景是经营一家快餐店--而他对尽职调查的想法是去有潜在投资机会的地方来个奢华度假。

When the wrong person ends up in charge, the results can be disastrous. One organization, the Dallas Fire and Police Pension, found itself in a very precarious financial position as a result of poorly judged real-estate investments. The chief administrator behind these investments lacked relevant experience. His professional background involved running a fast-food restaurant – and his idea of due diligence was taking luxurious vacations in places with potential investment opportunities.

治理不善并不总是导致金融灾难，但它必然会对投资业绩产生负面影响。许多关于投资治理结构的研究得出了相同的结论：选择错误的经理人是导致不良投资结果的主要因素之一。

Poor governance doesn’t always lead to financial disaster, but it’s bound to have a negative impact on investment performance. Many research studies on investment governance structures come to the same conclusion: choosing the wrong manager is one of the main predictors of poor investment outcomes.

这里有一个关键的信息：为了投资的成功，选择一个有经验和有魅力的领导者。

Here’s the key message: For investment success, choose a leader who is experienced and charismatic.

很明显，挑选一个好的领导人应该是一个优先事项。然而，一个在纸上看起来合格的人可能不是你的组织的最佳选择。例如，一些专家可能会成为相当称职的领导人。但如果没有内在的魅力，他们将很难激励他们的团队。

It’s clear that picking a good leader should be a priority. However, a person who seems qualified on paper may not be the best choice for your organization. For instance, some experts might make reasonably competent leaders. But without inherent charisma, they’ll struggle to motivate their team.

例如，想想像唐纳德-特朗普这样的领导人。无论你的政治信仰如何，不可否认的是特朗普的强大魅力以及他影响和激励人们的能力。投资领导人也需要有魅力。

Think of a leader like Donald Trump, for example. Whatever your political beliefs, there’s no denying Trump’s strong charisma and his ability to influence and motivate people. Investment leaders need to be charismatic too.

经验是另一个基本的领导素质。一个有经验的专业人士通常更善于评估风险和做出决策。2001年发表在《精神病学和心理健康护理杂志》上的一项研究证明了经验和决策之间的联系。就像投资者一样，护士经常要根据各种各样的输入信息来对后续病情做出诊断--而且往往是在没有非常充分的专业知识下。有经验的护士能够做出更准确的诊断。同样，一个看过2000个对冲基金的专业人士很可能比一个只看过几个的经理做出更好的决定。

Experience is another essential leadership quality. An experienced professional is usually better at evaluating risks and making decisions. The connection between experience and decision-making was demonstrated in a 2001 study published in the Journal of Psychiatric and Mental Health Nursing. Like investors, nurses often have to make assessments about the future based on a wide variety of inputs – and often without perfect knowledge. Experienced nurses are able to make more accurate diagnoses. Similarly, a professional who has seen 2,000 hedge funds is likely to make better decisions than a manager who’s only seen a few.

因此，总结起来，理想的领导者是强大的，有动力的，有能力的--一个有经验的专家。而且，请记住，为了获得结果，这个领导者需要在正确的职位上。最有效的组织将有魅力的专家放在相应等级的权力位置上。如果你不这样做，就把实际权力推给那些最合格的人，不管他们的头衔是什么。

So, to sum up, the ideal leader is powerful, motivational, and competent – an experienced expert. And remember, to get results, this leader needs to be in the right place. The most effective organizations put charismatic experts in positions of hierarchical authority. If you can’t put experts in hierarchical positions, push the actual authority to those that are most qualified, regardless of their title.

有了正确的负责人，你可以消除低效率，使你更容易达到投资目标。而且与阿尔法不同，经理人的选择是你可以控制的。

With the right people in charge, you can eliminate inefficiency and make it much easier to meet your investment objectives. And unlike alpha, the choice of manager is something you can control.

8, Instead of chasing alpha, use proven strategies to shift the odds in your favor.

[ 与其追逐阿尔法，不如使用经过验证的策略，将胜算转移到你身上 ]

拥有迈达斯之手的投资者只是一个神话。尽管炒作很凶，阿尔法大多仍然遥不可及。这是否意味着是时候一劳永逸地放弃阿尔法了？

The myth of the investor with a Midas touch is just that – a myth. Despite all the hype, alpha mostly remains out of reach. Does that mean it’s time to give up on alpha once and for all?

基本上，答案是肯定的。正如我们所看到的，阿尔法是难以捉摸和神秘的。一旦你开始看公共市场的数据，很明显，大多数超额回报从一开始就不是阿尔法。事后看来，这可能是各种因素的结果--或者纯粹是运气。因此，如果你在公共市场工作，你最好忘记阿尔法。相反，将你的努力指向以最低的价格获得指数和因素风险敞口。

Essentially, the answer is yes. As we’ve seen, alpha is elusive and enigmatic. Once you start looking at the data for public markets, it’s clear that most excess returns were never alpha to begin with. In hindsight, it was probably a result of factors – or pure luck. So if you’re working in public markets, you’re better off forgetting alpha. Instead, direct your efforts toward getting indexes and factor exposures at the lowest possible prices.

在私人市场也是类似的情况，阿尔法越来越难找到。如果你想获得超额回报，你就必须要有创新精神--并且知道在哪里寻找。为了增加你的成功机会，与更小、更灵活的经理人合作。投资专家拉里-西格尔的建议是，寻找能够真正教你新东西的人。

It’s a similar story in private markets, where alpha is becoming harder and harder to find. If you want excess returns, you’ll have to be innovative – and know where to look. To increase your chances for success, work with smaller, more nimble managers. The recommendation of expert investor Larry Siegel is to look for someone who can actually teach you something new.

这里的关键信息是：与其追逐阿尔法，不如使用经过验证的策略，将胜算转移到你身上。

Here’s the key message: Instead of chasing alpha, use proven strategies to shift the odds in your favor.

如果收益不错，关心阿尔法和超过市场基准的回报又有什么意义呢？归根结底，真正重要的是总的净回报。如果你达到了你的目标--即使它会出现一点波动或较差流动性--那就是真正的成功。

What’s the point in worrying about alpha and beating a benchmark if the returns are good? Ultimately, what really matters is the total net return. If you meet your objectives – even if it requires a bit of volatility or illiquidity – that’s true success.

威斯康星州投资委员会是一个很好的例子。这个组织使用聪明的治理策略和可持续的、基于规则的流程。他们也有一位知识渊博的专家主持投资工作。年复一年，他们的业绩一直超出其制定的策略基准。

The State of Wisconsin Investment Board is a good example. This organization uses smart governance strategies and sustainable, rules-based processes. They also have a highly knowledgeable expert presiding over the investments. Year after year, they consistently outperform their policy benchmark.

由于合理的投资流程和决策，董事会提高了成功的几率，并得到了梦幻般的结果。它甚至达到了阿尔法的效果!

Thanks to sensible investment processes and decision-making, the Board improved its chances of success and got fantastic results. It even achieved alpha!

任何投资者都可以从这种明智的方法中学习。展望未来，采取更明智、更科学的投资方法--并保持开放的心态。当然，总是会有机会的因素，你可能会在这个过程中犯一些小错误。但关键是要把一切当作经验来学习。

Any investor can learn from this wise approach. Going forward, adopt a more intelligent, scientific approach to investing – and keep an open mind. Of course, there’s always going to be an element of chance, and you’ll probably make some small mistakes along the way. But the key is to treat everything as a learning experience.

因此，当你计划你的下一次投资时，忘记阿尔法和迈达斯之手。这要靠你和你的组织来制造财富。

So, as you plan your next investment, forget about alpha and the Midas touch. It's up to you and your organization to create the gold.

9, Final summary [ 最后的总结 ]

这里关键信息：

在追求阿尔法的过程中，投资者往往最终发现是荒谬无益的追求。寻找阿尔法一直是相当的随机；如今，它甚至更加困难--所以不要浪费你的时间和精力！相反，专注于改善你的决策，遵循坚实的框架，并建立强大的治理。你将有更大的机会获得良好的回报--而且在结束时候看，这比阿尔法好得多。

The key message in these blinks:

In the pursuit of alpha, investors often end up on a wild-goose chase. Finding alpha has always been rather hit-or-miss; these days, it’s even more difficult – so don’t waste your time and energy! Instead, focus on improving your decision-making, following a solid framework, and establishing strong governance. You’ll have a much higher chance of getting good returns – and, at the end of the day, that’s so much better than alpha.

可操作的建议：

如果某件事情运作良好，就把它系统化。

Actionable advice:

If something works well, systemize it.

通过使某些步骤自动化，使投资过程更加有效和准确。例如，创建核对表来寻找最佳经理人。把它看作是对未来错误的预防措施--那些由系统1思维引起的不可避免的缺点！这将是一个很好的方法。

Make the investment process more efficient and accurate by automating certain steps. For example, create checklists to find the best managers. Think of it as a preventative measure against future errors – those inevitable shortcomings caused by System 1 thinking!

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