认为COVID将迎来数字未来吗？ 再想一想。

This story was originally published on Builtin.com.

这个故事最初发布在 Builtin.com上 。

The lockdown has lifted in many parts of the world, but the coronavirus crisis is far from over. Many workers, including a lot of tech employees, are still telecommuting.

在世界许多地方，封锁已经解除，但冠状病毒危机远未结束。 许多工人，包括很多技术人员，仍在远程办公。

例如， Twitter, for example, is allowing its staff to continue working from home if they prefer to. Twitter允许其员工根据需要继续在家工作。 Zoom looks as if it might keep on booming for quite a while. 缩放看起来好像可能会持续繁荣一段时间。 Delivery services also show no signs of slowing any time soon. 交付服务也没有任何迹象表明很快会放缓。

A lot has been written about how these times are propelling us into a tech-driven future. The crisis could provide a host of opportunities for new startups. Colleges, offices, and gyms might stay empty forever as people work, study, and exercise at home. People might never go to a doctor’s office again because they prefer visiting them virtually. Physical cash could fully become a thing of the past. Although it seems plausible that some of these changes will happen, the big leap into a completely digital society remains questionable.

关于这些时代如何推动我们迈向技术驱动的未来的文章很多。 这场危机可能为新创业公司提供大量机会。 人们在家中工作，学习和锻炼时，大学，办公室和体育馆可能永远都空着。 人们可能永远不会再去医生办公室，因为他们更喜欢虚拟地去看他们。 实物现金可能完全成为过去。 尽管似乎其中一些变化会发生似乎是合理的，但是向完全数字化社会的巨大飞跃仍然值得怀疑。

For one thing, people have a strong desire to bond with others in colleges, offices, gyms, and other places. More than that, though, change costs money.With an economic decline in full swing, investors are far less likely to take risks than in times of growth. That’s not to say that nothing will change due to the pandemic. For many fields, however, the new normal might look almost the same as the old normal.

一方面，人们强烈希望在大学，办公室，体育馆和其他地方与他人建立联系。 然而，改变不仅要花钱，而且随着经济全面下滑，与增长时期相比，投资者承担风险的可能性要小得多。 这并不是说大流行不会改变任何事情。 但是，对于许多字段，新法线可能看起来与旧法线几乎相同。

These considerations are important for investors who want to use their capital to foster change. They’re equally important if you’re considering working in a different field than your current one or thinking of starting a new business now or in the future.

这些考虑因素对于希望利用其资本来促进变革的投资者而言非常重要。 如果您正在考虑与当前领域不同的领域或者正在考虑现在或将来开始新的业务，那么它们同样重要。

变革即将来临 (Change is coming)

远程医疗正在爆炸 (Telehealth is exploding)

Even though a pandemic is raging worldwide, regarding other diseases as of lesser importance would be foolish. Just because coronavirus is dominating the headlines doesn’t mean that other health concerns, from heart disease to emergencies, have gone away. Fortunately, this is a concern technology can address. Since a substantial number of medical visits don’t require a physical examination, it makes sense to schedule them as a video call.

即使大流​​行在全球范围内肆虐，将其他疾病视为次要疾病也是愚蠢的。 仅仅因为冠状病毒占据了新闻头条，并不意味着从心脏病到紧急情况的其他健康问题都已经消失。 幸运的是，这是技术可以解决的问题。 由于大量的医疗就诊不需要身体检查，因此将其安排为视频通话是有意义的。

Although the quality of the virtual visit might not be the same as being in an exam room with a doctor, it is a good way of providing access when a health professional is far away. Telehealth could be especially convenient for people who are immobile or live in remote places, then.

尽管虚拟访问的质量可能不同于在医生的检查室中进行虚拟访问的质量，但这是在卫生专业人员不在的情况下提供访问权限的一种好方法。 那时，远程医疗对于不便或居住在偏远地区的人们尤其方便。

Mental-health counseling is especially suited for telehealth services. And as demand rises due to the lockdowns and the economic downturn, teleconsultations could make mental-health services more accessible provided that users have a suitable device and access to the internet. Of course, these requirements are a hurdle that might limit the ability of people of lower socioeconomic status from accessing these services.

心理健康咨询特别适合远程医疗服务。 而且由于封锁和经济低迷导致需求增加 ，只要用户拥有合适的设备并可以访问互联网，远程咨询可以使精神保健服务更容易访问。 当然，这些要求是一个障碍，可能会限制社会经济地位较低的人们获得这些服务的能力。

Despite that impediment, telehealth and similar technologies were already on the rise before the pandemic, and the lockdowns have driven a surge in demand that is unlikely to stall. As users grow more comfortable with the technology, many will be unwilling to go back to commuting and sitting in waiting rooms if it isn’t necessary.

尽管存在种种障碍，但在大流行之前，远程医疗和类似技术已经开始兴起 ，而且锁定措施导致需求激增，这种增长不太可能停滞。 随着用户对这项技术越来越满意，如果不需要的话，许多人将不愿回到通勤和坐在候车室。

数字支付将继续存在 (Digital payments are here to stay)

Payments via QR-code and the like were on the rise before the pandemic, but social distancing has accelerated the trend. Even skeptics and cash-aficionados have adopted digital payment services to reduce the risk of infection through physical credit cards and cash transactions.

在大流行之前，通过QR码等进行的付款正在增加，但是社交距离加快了这种趋势。 甚至怀疑论者和现金迷也已经采用了数字支付服务，以通过实物信用卡和现金交易降低感染风险。

Even though the payment sector overall has taken a hit due to coronavirus, digital-first companies such as PayPal and Square have seen a surge in usage. This trend won’t likely reverse as consumers get more and more comfortable with contactless payment.

尽管支付行业总体上受到了冠状病毒的打击 ，但PayPal和Square等数字优先公司的使用量却激增。 随着消费者对非接触式支付越来越满意，这一趋势将不可能逆转。

大型会议可以保持虚拟 (Big conferences could stay virtual)

Six months ago, most people likely associated virtual events with boredom. After all, watching someone give a speech on the web isn’t like streaming your favorite Netflix series. On the other hand, big, in-person events meant inspiring talks, exciting chats over coffee, and making new connections that could bring you further in the future.

六个月前，大多数人可能将虚拟事件与无聊联系在一起。 毕竟，观看某人在网络上发表演讲并不像流式传输您喜欢的Netflix系列电视一样。 另一方面，大型的面对面的活动意味着鼓舞人心的对话，通过咖啡进行令人兴奋的聊天，以及建立新的联系以使您在未来更进一步。

Fast forward to now and the thought of attending a real-life conference is anxiety-inducing at best. At the same time, more and more people are realizing that virtual events don’t need to be a stop-gap, emergency solution. While there are plenty of ways to get an event wrong and bore attendees, recent examples show that it’s more than possible to get people engaged. By scheduling breaks, creating breakout rooms for different conversations, and one-on-one chat rooms, organizers can loosen up the format and make it easier for attendees to get the best possible experience.

快进到现在，参加现实生活会议的想法充其量是焦虑症。 同时，越来越多的人意识到虚拟事件并不一定是一个紧急的解决方案。 尽管有很多方法可以使活动弄错并引起与会人员的厌烦，但最近的例子表明，要使人们参与进来是远远超过可能的。 通过安排休息时间，创建用于不同对话的分组讨论室以及一对一聊天室，组织者可以放宽格式，使与会者更容易获得最佳体验。

Real-life human contact can’t be replaced by virtual events, but the fact that virtual events cut down on travel expenses and logistics makes them a lot more convenient and environmentally friendly. Events with lots of international visitors might choose to stay online or adopt a hybrid format where part of the conference is in-person, but people can also participate virtually if they prefer.

虚拟事件无法代替现实生活中的人际交往，但是虚拟事件减少了差旅费和后勤费，这一事实使它们变得更加方便和环保。 有很多国际访客的活动可能会选择保留在线状态或采用混合形式，其中部分会议是面对面的，但如果愿意，人们也可以虚拟参与。

他们的新常态是旧常态 (Their new normal is the old normal)

新兴企业不断涌现 (Startups are in flux)

Each crisis comes with a host of new opportunities. As the circumstances change, some market segments dry up while others see a surge in demand. These days, the most in-demand market sectors are served by startups in healthcare, delivery, robotics, fintech, and digital meet-up platforms.

每次危机都会带来许多新机遇。 随着情况的变化，一些细分市场枯竭，而另一些细分市场则需求激增。 如今，医疗保健，交付，机器人，金融科技和数字会议平台的初创公司为需求最大的市场领域提供服务。

The overall landscape for startups is looking a lot bleaker, however. Should the second half of 2020 be anything like the first half, venture capital funding rounds will be down by around 30 percent. And although almost 50 percent more startups are projected to exit than last year, the overall exit values probably won’t even reach half the value of 2019.

但是，初创企业的整体前景显得黯淡无光。 如果2020年下半年与上半年类似，则风险资本融资回合将减少约30％。 尽管预计退出的创业公司将比去年增加近50％，但总体退出价值可能甚至不会达到2019年的一半。

The projections for 2020 are based on the data from January through June, assuming that the tendencies so far stay the same. It’s clear to see that there will be around 25 percent less funding rounds than in 2019, and that the values of exiting startups won’t even be half as large as in 2019.

假设到目前为止的趋势保持不变，则2020年的预测基于1月至6月的数据。 显而易见，与2019年相比，融资轮次将减少约25％，而退出的初创企业的价值甚至不会比2019年的一半大。

Despite substantial help from governments, startups in tourism, transportation, and event management might go bust before the crisis is over. In Europe, which was the epicenter of the virus before it shifted to the United States, 40 percent of startups expect their revenue to be less than three quarters of what they’d originally planned. In addition, more than two-thirds of European startups have slowed or frozen hiring. In the U.S., the situation isn’t any better as nearly 70,000 tech startup employees have lost their jobs since March.

尽管得到了政府的大力支持，但旅游业，交通运输和活动管理方面的初创公司可能会在危机结束前破产。 在该病毒转移到美国之前，它是该病毒的震中中心。 在欧洲 ，有40％的初创公司期望其收入不到最初计划的四分之三。 此外，超过三分之二的欧洲初创公司减缓或冻结了招聘。 在美国，情况并没有好转，因为自3月以来已有近70,000名科技创业公司员工失业 。

Even though this could be an excellent moment to launch a new startup, and although plenty of startups are still going strong, this crisis will cause many others to go bust. It’s too early to say how many businesses will die from the consequences of coronavirus, but the likeliest scenario is that innovation will slow down in most branches as the economy declines and investors grow wary.

即使这是启动新创业公司的绝佳时机，尽管许多创业公司仍在成长 ，但这场危机将导致许多其他创业公司破产。 现在要说多少企业会死于冠状病毒，还为时过早，但是最有可能的情况是，随着经济下滑和投资者变得谨慎，大多数分支机构的创新速度将放缓。

As a result, if you’re working in a startup, you’ll have to reckon with slower growth than initially projected. You’ll also likely need to put more effort into fundraising, possibly with lesser returns. If you’ve been thinking about working in a startup, you might want to delay your plans until the ecosystem shows signs of recovery.

结果，如果您在一家初创公司工作，那么您将不得不考虑比最初预计的增长慢的增长。 您可能还需要付出更多的努力来筹集资金，而回报可能会更少。 如果您一直在考虑在初创公司工作，则可能要推迟计划，直到生态系统显示出恢复迹象。

办公室不会空着 (Offices won’t stay empty)

The worldwide lockdowns have led to plenty of buzz about the future of corporate offices. The discussion has ranged from pointing out the ways in which remote work could promote productivity and flexibility to lofty predictions of plummeting rents and waves of de-urbanization as workers flee from the world’s cities.

全球范围内的封锁使人们对公司办公室的未来充满了关注。 讨论的范围从指出远程工作可以提高生产力和灵活性的方式，到高预测租金下降和城市化浪潮的预测 ，随着工人从世界城市逃离。

The vast majority of these pieces consistently ignore one aspect of this crisis: Workers are hunkered down at their home desks right now out of necessity. And while some quite enjoy working from home, others aren’t finding it that easy. From the parents who have to entertain and home-school their kids to singles who may feel depressed and isolated, lots of people are eager to return to their workplaces.

这些作品中的绝大多数始终忽略了这场危机的一个方面：工人现在出于必要而被迫坐在办公桌旁。 尽管有些人很喜欢在家工作，但其他人却觉得这并不容易。 从需要娱乐的父母和孩子上学，到可能会感到沮丧和孤独的单身人士，很多人都渴望回到自己的工作场所。

Although many CEOs have realized that more flexibility is beneficial for both their workers and corporate expenses, most employees won’t opt to work remotely all the time. Indeed, according to survey data, workers are reluctant to give up in-person exchanges with their colleagues and clients.

尽管许多首席执行官已经意识到，更大的灵活性对他们的员工和公司支出都有利，但是大多数员工不会一直选择远程工作。 实际上， 根据调查数据 ，工人不愿放弃与同事和客户的面对面交流。

Offices might never be as full as before. After all, if this pandemic has taught us anything, it’s the fact that remote work is effective. But instead of erasing offices from the landscape, a more realistic scenario is that work will become more flexible in the future. Although the vast majority of companies won’t shut down their offices, you might not be required to show up to work every day any more if you prefer working from home. Corporations might spend less on space and construct fewer new buildings. On the other hand, the office as a space for social connection and birthplace of innovation is far from dead.

办公室可能从未像现在这样满员。 毕竟，如果这种流行病教给我们任何东西，那就是远程工作有效的事实。 但是，与从景观中删除办公室相比，更现实的情况是， 将来的工作将变得更加灵活 。 尽管绝大多数公司不会关闭办公室，但如果您更喜欢在家工作，则可能不再需要每天都上班。 公司可能会在空间上花费更少，并建造更少的新建筑物。 另一方面，作为社交联系和创新发源地的办公室还远远没有消失。

学生想去校园 (Students want to be on campus)

Although college deans and national policymakers are pushing massive investments in online classes, many students are reluctant to follow through. The promise of online education is that it will cut down the expense of college and level the playing field for students, regardless of their origin and their household income.

尽管大学院长和国家政策制定者正在大力投入在线课程，但许多学生仍不愿继续学习。 在线教育的前景是，它将减少大学的开支并为学生提供公平的竞争环境 ，而不论他们的出身和家庭收入如何。

In the last decades, universities have been charging skyrocketing fees. In addition, most colleges have a long history of giving preference to students from wealthy backgrounds. Although on the surface online classes would seem to make higher education more accessible for students of all backgrounds, the reality is often different.

在过去的几十年中，大学一直在收取飞涨的费用。 此外，大多数大学都有悠久的历史，偏爱有钱背景的学生。 尽管从表面上看，在线课程似乎使各种背景的学生都可以更容易地接受高等教育，但现实往往是不同的。

As the New York Times reports, the transition to online learning has been hard for many students. Whether they’re lacking access to computers or internet, suffering from a turbulent or abusive family life, or missing the in-person support of their teachers and classmates, one-third of high schoolers in Los Angeles are not logging in to their online classes.

作为 据《纽约时报》报道 ，许多学生很难向在线学习过渡。 无论他们是无法使用计算机或互联网，遭受家庭生活的动荡或虐待，还是缺少老师和同学的亲自支持，洛杉矶三分之一的高中生都没有登录在线课程。

The situation isn’t any better in colleges and universities. I myself had to make the online shift with the class I’d been teaching at Sorbonne Université. Although most students were on track before the pandemic hit, more than a quarter of them didn’t respond to any emails or messages and never completed the class after shifting online.

高校的情况并没有更好。 我本人必须与我在索邦大学(SorbonneUniversité)授课的班级进行在线转换。 尽管大多数学生在大流行之前就已经步入正轨，但其中有超过四分之一的学生没有回复任何电子邮件或消息，并且在转移到网上后从未完成课程。

I realized the extent of some of their struggles when one of my students left an apologetic note on one of her assignments. She was unable to invest as much time in the class as she wanted to because she was sharing a computer with her sister and the latter had her own Zoom classes all day long.

当我的一位学生为她的一项作业留下道歉的音符时，我意识到了他们的一些挣扎程度。 由于无法与姐姐共享一台计算机，而后者整天都有自己的Zoom课，因此她无法在课堂上投入足够的时间。

These difficulties might eventually be smoothed out once students get more used to online classes. But for now, it’s understandable that students are asking for a refund of their fees for 2020. Classes were moved online in a rush, many of which were being taught electronically for the first time ever. Online courses require that students have access to both reliable devices and internet connections to complete modules and coursework. Many students, and particularly those from lower socioeconomic backgrounds, simply don’t have the infrastructure to make the best of this situation. In addition, online classes often aren’t as engaging as the in-person version, making them a lot more demanding in terms of self-motivation. This provides an additional obstacle for students who have an exhausting job on the side or face difficult living conditions with noisy neighbors and annoying roommates.

一旦学生习惯了在线课程，这些困难最终可能会得到解决。 但就目前而言，可以理解的是，学生们要求退还 2020年的学费。班级匆忙转移到网上，其中许多是有史以来第一次电子教学。 在线课程要求学生访问可靠的设备和互联网连接，以完成模块和课程作业。 许多学生，尤其是那些来自较低社会经济背景的学生，根本没有充分利用这种情况的基础设施。 此外，在线课程通常不如面对面课程那么吸引人，这使得他们对自我激励的要求更高。 这给那些疲惫不堪的工作或在嘈杂的邻居和烦人的室友面前生活困难的学生提供了额外的障碍。

These are some of the same obstacles that make the adoption of telehealth services harder for people of lower socioeconomic status. These obstacles present a much larger hurdle in education, however, because a student needs to be online and connected for several hours each day. This requires a proper laptop or desktop computer and a stable internet connection. In contrast, a patient could use a cheap smartphone and use the Wi-Fi in a local coffeehouse for the occasional appointment with a doctor.

这些都是相同的障碍，使得社会经济地位较低的人更难以采用远程医疗服务。 但是，这些障碍给教育带来了更大的障碍，因为学生每天都需要上网并连接数小时。 这需要一台合适的笔记本电脑或台式计算机以及稳定的互联网连接。 相比之下，患者可以使用便宜的智能手机并在当地咖啡馆使用Wi-Fi，偶尔与医生预约。

As for the future, the consensus is that online education can complement in-person instruction but cannot fully replace it. Of course, the idea of recording a lecture once and never having to give it again sounds appealing, and there will be a place for that. Teachers are missing in-person classes where they can get their students’ reactions and feedback in real time, however. Looking at a grid of faces on a screen just isn’t the same.

对于未来， 共识是在线教育可以补充面对面的指导，但不能完全取代它。 当然，一次录制一次演讲而不必再次演讲的想法听起来很吸引人，并且会有这样的地方。 但是，教师缺少面对面的课堂，他们无法实时获得学生的React和反馈。 在屏幕上看脸的网格是不一样的。

In addition, there are many subjects that can’t effectively be taught online. Art students probably appreciate looking at a famous painting from their computer screens, but it’s a far cry from seeing an artist’s œuvre in person. Acting classes are hard to implement since many details are not conveyed over the screen too well. And singing in a virtual choir in real-time is almost impossible these days due to the heavy time-lag. Finally, students can’t conduct experiments for biology, chemistry, and physics classes from home because of their scale and cost. Moreover, an instructor generally needs to be present for science experiments because of potential hazards.

此外，还有许多主题无法在线有效教授 。 美术专业的学生可能会喜欢从计算机屏幕上观看一幅著名的画，但这与亲眼看到画家的作品相差甚远。 代理类很难实现，因为许多细节不能很好地在屏幕上传达。 由于时间太长，这些天几乎不可能在虚拟合唱团中实时演唱。 最后，由于规模和成本原因，学生无法在家中进行生物学，化学和物理课程的实验。 此外，由于潜在的危害，通常需要一名讲师进行科学实验。

Right now, students are also unable to form bonds and friendships during on-campus break times and dorm-room parties. However trivial this may sound, it is an integral part of the college experience and often fosters personal and professional connections that last a lifetime.

现在，在校园休息时间和宿舍聚会上，学生们也无法建立起纽带和建立友谊。 无论听起来多么微不足道，它都是大学经验中不可或缺的一部分，并且通常会建立持续一生的个人和专业联系。

Although shifting all classes online might be the only safe thing to do at the moment, colleges won’t stay empty forever. Surely some classes will be taught online in the future, but the freshmen of 2020 needn’t reckon with having to do all their classes online for years to come unless their curriculum is explicitly designed that way.

尽管目前将所有班级转移到网络上可能是唯一安全的事情，但大学不会永远空着。 当然将来还会有一些在线课程，但是2020年的新生不需要考虑在未来几年都必须在线上所有课程，除非他们的课程明确设计了这种方式。

家庭体育馆不会持久 (Home gyms won’t last)

At-home workouts have been around for decades. With gym closures and other restrictions, right now almost everyone is doing them. Even avid gym-rats have had to face the reality that their second living room is closed indefinitely.

在家锻炼已有几十年了 。 由于体育馆关闭和其他限制，现在几乎每个人都在这样做。 即使是狂热的运动爱好者也不得不面对这样的现实，即他们的第二个客厅无限期关闭。

As gyms are struggling to survive, there’s been an unprecedented surge in online gym classes and the sale of home fitness equipment. Those who have enough disposable income are getting Pelotons, as can be seen from a 66 percent explosion in sales last quarter. People on a tighter budget are downloading workout apps in droves.

随着体育馆努力生存，在线体育课和家用健身器材的销售出现了前所未有的增长。 那些拥有足够可支配收入的人正在购买Pelotons ，从上一季度的销售额激增66％可以看出。 预算紧张的人们正在大量下载健身应用。

But at-home-workouts could become less popular again as people return to their offices. With flexible schedules likely to follow in the wake of the pandemic, many people will find it easy to fit in a quick fitness class, especially if they’re not spending hours commuting daily. Plus, getting some exercise can break up the monotony of quarantine. But let’s face it — if you didn’t enjoy getting on the treadmill after a long workday before the pandemic, and you didn’t want to get up at the crack of dawn to get your exercise either, you’re unlikely to do so in the months to come. On the other hand, a membership to the gym or a real-life trainer might be a better motivator to get yourself moving on weekends.

但是，随着人们回到办公室，在家锻炼的人可能不再那么受欢迎。 在大流行之后，可能会有灵活的时间表，许多人会发现很容易参加快速健身课程，尤其是如果他们不花时间每天上下班。 另外，进行一些运动可以打破隔离的单调。 但让我们面对现实吧-如果您在大流行前的漫长工作日后不喜欢在跑步机上跑步，并且又不想在黎明时起床锻炼自己，那您也不大可能这样做在接下来的几个月中。 另一方面，加入健身房或参加现实生活中的教练可能会成为促使自己在周末运动的更好动力。

So even though many gyms will go bust before the crisis is over, they’re likely to re-emerge in one form or another. It’s too early to tell how large the impact of the crisis will be. But even though demand for gyms and personal trainers is practically non-existent at the moment, it’s unlikely that Zoom-Yoga will take over completely.

因此，即使许多体育馆在危机结束前就破产了，但它们很可能以一种或另一种形式重新出现。 现在说这场危机的影响有多大还为时过早。 但是，尽管目前几乎不存在对体育馆和私人教练的需求，但Zoom-Yoga不太可能会完全取代。

现场音乐无所不能 (Nothing beats live music)

Instagram Live has featured some mind-blowing hip-hop parties during the pandemic. Choirs have been collaborating online. Artists have been recording and releasing songs from their homes.

在大流行期间， Instagram Live举办了一些令人兴奋的嘻哈派对。 合唱团一直在网上合作 。 艺术家们一直在从自己的家中录制和发行歌曲 。

But if you’ve ever been to the opera or a live concert, you know that not even the most luxurious decor and the most expensive stereos can replace the sensation of thousands of people jamming along to the same rhythms and melodies. The experience of standing in unbearable heat or pouring rain just to see your favorite artist provides the building blocks for lifelong memories.

但是，如果您去过歌剧或现场音乐会，就会知道，即使是最豪华的装潢和最昂贵的立体声音响，也无法取代成千上万拥挤在同样节奏和旋律中的人们的感觉。 站在难以忍受的高温或倾盆大雨中只是为了欣赏自己喜欢的艺术家，这种体验为人们提供了终生的回忆。

While musical tastes vary, not many people dislike live music altogether. So it comes as no surprise that people have started attending socially distanced drive-in concerts just to get some of that feeling again.

尽管音乐品味各异，但很少有人完全不喜欢现场音乐。 因此，人们开始参加社交距离开阔的驾车音乐会只是为了再次获得某种感觉就不足为奇了。

Although the entire event industry has been hit hard by the pandemic, the damage is unlikely to be permanent where music is concerned. Although we’re seeing more business conferences moving online for good, big concerts, festivals, sporting events, and recreational live events should go back to real-life mode once the crisis is over.

尽管整个事件行业都受到大流行的严重打击，但就音乐而言，损害不可能是永久性的。 尽管我们看到有越来越多的商务会议在线上进行，以寻求良好的效果，但是一旦危机结束，大型音乐会，节日，体育赛事和娱乐性现场活动应该回到现实生活中。

底线 (The bottom line)

Some big changes are inevitable, but a society-wide tech revolution is unlikely at the moment. Every human needs a little bit of in-person contact. So even though most people can get through a life full of video conferences for a while, on-site work and meet-ups won’t disappear.

不可避免会有一些大的变化，但是目前不太可能发生全社会的技术革命。 每个人都需要一点点面对面的联系。 因此，即使大多数人可以度过一段充满视频会议的生活，但现场工作和聚会不会消失。

We’ll likely be seeing more flexible work schedules and big events shifting online, either fully or with an accompanying virtual experience. We’ll also see a more widespread adoption of telehealth services and contactless payments.

我们可能会看到更灵活的工作日程安排和大型事件在网上转移，无论是完全转移还是附带虚拟体验。 我们还将看到远程医疗服务和非接触式支付的更广泛采用。

On the other hand, corporate offices are far from dead. Students will want to go back to the campus, even if they might take some standard courses online. Some gyms will shut down before the crisis is over, but it’s unlikely that consumers won’t appreciate an out-of-the-house workout with qualified trainers anymore. And once enormous gatherings are allowed again, people will want to go back to live concerts and sporting events.

另一方面，公司办公室还远没有结束。 即使他们可能会在线上一些标准课程，学生也会希望回到校园。 一些体育馆将在危机结束前关闭，但消费者不太可能不再喜欢由合格的教练进行的户外锻炼。 一旦再次允许举行大型聚会，人们将希望回到现场音乐会和体育赛事。

In some sectors, most notably videoconferencing, the virus has acted as a catalyst. Other sectors, like travel and commuting, may suffer in the months after the crisis as consumers have become more aware of unnecessary trips.

在某些领域，最显着的是视频会议，该病毒起了催化剂的作用。 随着消费者越来越意识到不必要的出行，其他部门，例如旅行和通勤，可能在危机后的几个月内受到影响。

While I don’t claim to know it all, these are points to keep in mind if you want to invest money in a company in the months to come, if you’re considering a change in your professional field, or if you’re thinking of building a new business. Though some sectors are experiencing a huge wave of transformation, the Big Digital Revolution doesn’t seem to be on the horizon — not just yet at least.

虽然我并不声称一无所知，但如果您想在未来几个月内向一家公司投资，或者您正在考虑改变专业领域，或者您正在想建立新业务。 尽管某些行业正在经历着巨大的变革浪潮，但“大数字革命”似乎并没有出现-至少现在还没有。